Risk Identification and Mitigation
A preflight briefing is only as good as the decisions it generates. AC 91-92 emphasizes that pilots must turn information into action through structured risk assessment. The goal is to understand whether this airplane, with this pilot, under these conditions, today can complete the flight safely.
PAVE: The Four Corners of Realistic Risk Assessment
Risk comes from four sources: Pilot, Aircraft, enVironment and External pressures. The pilot must evaluate personal readiness—fatigue, recency, pressure, and comfort. The aircraft’s capabilities and equipment determine what conditions it can safely handle. The environment (weather, terrain, lighting, and airport conditions) creates operational context. And external pressures, such as schedules or expectations, often push pilots toward unsafe choices.
Where Pilots Most Often Underestimate Risk:
- Fatigue combined with marginal weather
- Terrain + lowering ceilings
- Night operations with limited recent experience
- Aircraft limitations in icing or turbulence
- Schedule pressure or “get-there-itis”
When these overlap, accidents happen.
The 3P Cycle: Turning Briefings Into Action
The 3P model—Perceive, Process, Perform—transforms raw briefing data into smart decisions. Pilots first identify hazards, then evaluate their likelihood and severity, and finally take decisive steps such as rerouting, delaying, adding fuel, adjusting altitude, or canceling. AC 91-92 stresses that this cycle continues in flight as conditions evolve.
Common Hotspots Where Pilots Get Trapped
Some situations require extra caution: marginal weather trends that worsen slowly, familiar routes that lull pilots into complacency, short hops that tempt pilots to skip full planning, and unstable air masses in terrain-constrained environments. Each of these shrinks a pilot’s options if conditions deteriorate.
Personal Minimums Simplified:
- Weather: Day VFR > 3,000 ft ceilings; night VFR > 5,000; raise limits if low experience
- Aircraft: Fuel reserves of 1 hour VFR/1.5 IFR; consider autopilot, anti-ice, and performance
- Pilot: Sleep, currency, night/IMC recency, mental state
Clear limits prevent emotional decision-making.
Scenario: Good Forecast, Quiet Trouble Building
A pilot planning a simple cross-country sees VFR conditions everywhere. But AC 91-92 thinking reveals a warm front approaching, mid-level thickening, ceilings slipping below forecast, and terrain surrounding the destination. The pilot mitigates with more fuel, a terrain-friendly route, an earlier departure, and a pre-set diversion trigger. When ceilings drop near the mountains, the decision to divert becomes easy, not stressful.
Conclusion
AC 91-92 moves pilots from passive information gathering to active decision-making. With PAVE, the 3P cycle, personal minimums, and trend awareness, pilots learn to build wide safety margins and stay ahead of risk. Confidence comes not from luck or hope, but from structured, thoughtful, repeatable decision-making.
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